He would probably implode into a coma.
But is it really just a game of chance?
Lets start with the basics.
If you consider success to be one of the five biggest, its a 5/22 chance.
OK, lets have a go at be clever.
Whats the chance that youwontpick the highest box on each turn?
Taking the product gives us…
This is, incidentally, the percentage of Noel Edmonds face that is beard.
Ad content continues below
There are however some twists to try and obfuscate the chance.
The banker, and the last box.
Every game begins the same way.
Someone is chosen at random from the box keepers to play.
The amount in their box is what they win, unless they swap at the end.
Youre probably lying if you say you remember it, because it was never shown here.
In this thought experiment, you are faced with three doors, behind one of which is a car.
The other two, goats.
The problem is this: do you stick, or twist?
Therefore you should switch doors.
Unfortunately, this doesnt apply Edmonds himself doesnt ever reveal anything about the boxes you havent opened.
So back to square one then.
Then another random box is chosen, and more tears.
This continues until there are no more boxes left or someone cries themselves into dehydration.
Of course, this was the way the game was designed.
Much in the same way as breathing, or not falling over.
So is there any way to get one over on them?
Noel Edmonds and his imaginary phone calls.
if theyre providing some decent entertainment value like crying profusely or wearing a loud shirt.
Either way, the ultimate decision on whether to deal is whether or not youre beating the mean.
If youre offered substantially lower than the RMS of the remaining boxes, tell the banker to bank off.
So what counts as a success?
But thats just the average of all the prizes!
I hear you yell, and of course youre right.
This works out to about 25,712.12.
Which is what I already told you.
This article first appeared in May 2014.
